The truth is that nobody really knows why all forms of crime have been declining steadily since 1992. It’s obviously a combination of factors, but i think Video Games deserve a lot more credit than they get. The Freakonomics folks have looked at this briefly, but there needs to be much more focus on this variable. As attractive as theories like unleaded gasoline and “Broken Windows” policing are to some people, I think people need to look at the question much more simply. Crime is primarily committed by young men. What do young men do with their time? Video Games. What did they do in the 70’s, 80’s and 90’s? Drugs and crime. That’s what I was up to anyway. Obviously there’s still time for drugs and crime with the youth of today, but the mix has changed dramatically.
Criminologists are already well aware of “street time” as a factor in crime. The heaviest crime months are always the months when it is most pleasant to roam the streets. If there are less young men roaming the streets there is less crime. Video Games have done us an incredible favor.
You may be surprised to hear that Crime is still falling in the United States. I’ve covered the supposed “Ferguson Effect” over and over. This is the idea, pushed by the New York Times, and everybody’s favorite FBI director James Comey, that Black Lives Matter has scared police departments and led to a dramatic increase in crime. I’ve always been against the way that the “Ferguson Effect” concept has been used. But I have been open to the idea. It makes sense. Justified lack of trust in police forces is probably the main reason why crime persists in inner city communities. Blaming Black Lives Matter for this, however, rather than brutal policing has always struck me as a flat out evil choice. I did a video comparing this to blaming the scandals of the Catholic Church on sex abuse victims, and I very much believe this to be true.
I may not have needed to spend so much time trying get out ahead of the “Ferguson Effect”. It turns out it doesn’t exist outside of a few places with particularly horrific recent examples of police brutality like Chicago and Baltimore. There’s a reason why Trump, Giuliani, and Lead “Broken Windows” propagandist Heather MacDonald spend so much time shouting about Chicago. The news everywhere else remains good.
The worst example that the pro “Stop and Frisk” types had throughout 2016 was Washington, DC. In 2015, Murders went up a full 54%. That Breitbart article I linked there of course probably didn’t emphasize the fact that the 2015 figure only brought murders back to the level they were at in 2008, and 2015’s 162 murders was still only a third of Washington DC’s 1991 peak of 482 murders. Regardless, a 54% increase is something to freak out about, and it provided great support those who wanted to portray America’s cities as spinning out of control. I can’t be bothered to check, but I am pretty sure Trump used the Washington, DC figure in his inauguration speech in Cleveland in July 2016. It made an impact. Unfortunately for the Trumpkins, Washington, DC hasn’t cooperated. In 2016, Washington, DC murders fell 17%. Philadelphia posted one of it’s best years ever in 2016. Crime has continued to fall in New York City, despite the end of Giuliani’s cherished “Stop and Frisk” program.
So there’s a reason the “Law and Order” types keep shouting about Chicago. They don’t have anything else left. I suppose we should be grateful to them for bringing attention to the plight of Chicago, which is a very real problem. I need to do a video on Chicago before too long, but I believe the problem there to be largely about police brutality, and the corruption and budget issues that plague Chicago at large. I laid out part of that case here, with a dismantling of a Wall Street Journal piece on Chicago.
As a final note, you may be wondering why I haven’t addressed Trump’s anti-immigration Executive Order. I have a lot to say on this, but I honestly don’t see much of a point in adding to the chorus of electronic condemnation at this point. I was marching at the Los Angeles airport on Sunday. Over the coming months I will have a lot to say about Islam, Terrorism, the United States, and the way that our politicians abuse the issue. Rest assured, the Trump administration will not come out of that discussion unscathed. Nor will the Obama or Bush administrations.
Video Transcript after the jump…