In the US we are pretty sure we hate the Chinese Communist Party. But we will miss it. What this video lays out is the service that that party provides to the rest of the world. The Party would like us to think it’s responsible for Chinese growth, and that might have been true once. But today it acts instead as a limiting factor on Chinese growth. The Chinese Communist Party gives the rest of the world the breathing room necessary to make sure that China’s rise isn’t too destabilizing.
One note to those watching from Latin America. Did it bug you that this video seemed to use “America” to refer to the United States? Well it didn’t, and that formulation was very conscious. I’ve got a lot more thinking and researching to do, but I’ve been spending a lot of time thinking about geopolitics in a hemispheric sense. I’m becoming convinced that the American countries, north and south, have a lot more that unites them than divides them. But I suppose that’s a very obvious thing for a guy from the US to think. Like I said, there’s a lot more thinking to do on this topic, and what the United States would have to give up to build a true “American Community” and century, but I’d love to hear what you think…
Also, I wanted to mention it in the video, but didn’t get the chance. Like many of my better ideas, this came out of a work of Science Fiction. This video was inspired in part by the book “Ghost Fleet: A Novel of the Next World War” by P. W. Singer. Singer lays out a somewhat fanciful picture of what a war between the US and China would look like. It’s interesting that his war requires a post-Communist China to be plausible in the slightest. It’s a fun read, blurbed by all manner of Defense Department muck-a-mucks, including HR McMaster, the current National Security Adviser, if I remember correctly. Well worth a read, if that’s your type of thing. I found it’s simple laying out of the weakness of the Chinese Communist Party to be one of its best observations.
Video Transcript after the jump…
Ladies and Gentlemen, the Chinese Communist Party is America’s best friend. Let Me explain. Now I’m on record as saying that the majority of the “threats” facing the United States are fantasies. Jihadi Terrorism is largely an invention of the United States and our Saudi Colony. Iran just wants us to leave it alone, and Russia is desperately scrambling to hold onto its status as a regional power. China is different. China isn’t a real threat to the US today, but it will be one.
The Chinese civilization state has the resources and people necessary to truly dethrone the United States. Eventually. By some measures its economy is already larger than that of the United States, and it has the people and skills necessary to eventually challenge the US military in Asia. It can’t challenge the US today. I’ve spoken to many people in the military who believe that wiping them off those islands in the South China Sea would be the work of a day or two. Much closer to their own shores, they could destroy Taiwan today, but they probably couldn’t occupy it. They currently pose no military threat.
Over the past four decades China’s rise has been extraordinary. But it’s slowing. Admittedly, 6 or 7% of growth a year is still fast enough to fairly quickly outpace the US economically, but it’s not fast enough to preserve the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party. Authoritarian regimes are pretty good at playing catch up. And that’s exactly what the Chinese communists have done. They’ve applied the lessons of development from other countries, and in many cases they’ve used stolen technology to do it. They’ve packed centuries of development into a few decades, and paved the country in concrete.
Now they are dealing with the hangover, environmental, fiscal and social. There are a number of crises in store for the country, and the Communist Party won’t be able to handle them well. The incredible corruption, and fundamental illogic of Communist party planning and propaganda acts as a brake on China’s true potential. It’s now quite clear that China has a deeply capitalist culture, and a vast potential for innovation as well. They are beginning to make a real impact internationally. But none of that will come to fruition without the rule of law. People need to know that contracts will be honored. And they have to be confident that their wealth won’t be confiscated by a corrupt elite. As long as China is ruled by one party, its economic power will never truly dominate on the world stage.
And that’s why the Chinese Communist Party is America’s best friend. As I’ve pointed out elsewhere, 150 years from now, China will be the dominant power in South East Asia. The only question is how they get there. They could get there within the context of the international system we’ve already been building, or they could get there after a horrific war. What the Chinese Communist party does is give the rest of the world some breathing space. The true power of the Chinese growth engine won’t be unleashed until the Communist Party is gone. It gives us more time to solidify the world system, and turn it into one that no individual country can dominate, and one that all countries respect. With the Communists in power in China, we all know that China has a massive crisis to go through before it truly competes for dominance in Asia. And that’s why the Chinese Communist Party is America’s best friend.
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