Hey there. Over the next couple months I am going to run a lot of videos about what a terrible president Donald Trump is, and how incapable he is of doing anything to fix the country’s problems. But today I am going to talk about something he has actually already done. I am 99% sure that if Donald Trump is re-elected, we are going to war with Iran.

It’s easy to forget with all of the catastrophes Trump has brought us since, but in the beginning of this year Trump’s handlers convinced him to start a war with Iran. This is key… I am not saying that Trump will start a war with Iran if he is re-elected. I am saying he already started it. The only thing that has delayed it so far is the patient statesmanship of the Iranian regime. On January 3rd we assassinated Qassem Soleimani, probably the 2nd most powerful person In Iran, and also probably the guy who did the most to defeat the Islamic State.

This is roughly the equivalent of Iran assassinating David Petraeus, or Jim Mattis. But not quite. Soliemani is credited by many with saving his country multiple times. Not just from the threat of the Islamic State but also from the world spanning hyper-power that invaded and occupied the two countries on either side of Iran almost two decades ago. To be honest, Generals Petraeus and Mattis haven’t done anything that useful. They have distinguished themselves by being a little less clownish than the rest of the leadership class that gave us two pointless failed trillion dollar wars of choice. The true equivalent to what we did to Iran would be if they assassinated Ulysses S. Grant or Dwight D. Eisenhower.

It’s undeniable that Soleimani helped to kill US soldiers through proxies when we invaded Iran’s next door neighbor 17 years ago. But our Israeli proxies are killing Iranian soldiers in Syria this year, and it’s also almost certain that they are also carrying out terror attacks on the Iranian people as well. We are not the good guys here.

I get that it’s satisfying to reach across the world for vengeance, and that the killing of Soleimani made Trump look tough to a lot of US voters. But was it smart? Our obsession with this plucky little country that has the same enemies we do is a source of constant amusement to Russia and China. Nothing would make our more serious adversaries happier than the US starting yet another trillion dollar war in the Middle East.

Donald Trump the candidate knew this. On the campaign trail he mercilessly mocked Bush and Obama for the trillions wasted in these wars and he was absolutely right to do so. I don’t think Trump personally wants war. But all the people who work for him do, as I’ve been pointing out for quite some time.

“There seem to be two goals here, the official goal, and what looks to me to be, for most people in the administration, the real goal. Thanks to few moronic Washington, DC think tanks, and a monolithically war mongering news media, from CNN to Fox News, your average half-informed uncle thinks that the Obama administration’s Iran Nuclear Deal was bad, and that a better deal was somehow possible, and all that was necessary was a real tough guy to get it. This is the official story that Republican congressmen can sell to the half informed uncles that fund their campaigns. Our half-informed uncles don’t generally want war, but in their heart of hearts they just know Trump can get a better deal than that wimpy black guy. The thing is, if you look at the backgrounds, speeches, and tactics of the Folks in the Trump administration, it’s clear that for most, the official goal is just a cover. Most of them are working for regime change, and they always have been. A lot of these guys seem to think that the Iranian regime can be overthrown without war, but it’s pretty clear that most of them would be very OK with war too. It’s darkly comic that Donald Trump is the only person in his administration who seems to believe that the official goal is possible. It’s Trump, so it depends on the day, his mood, and which Fox News show he watched last, but he occasionally does seem dumb enough to believe that he will produce a lasting deal with Iran. Unfortunately nobody he has hired has any real interest in that. The Trump administration doesn’t have the temperament, the personnel, or the capacity to negotiate a nuclear deal. The goal is regime change, and it always has been.”

These guys aren’t just angling for war, they’ve already done everything necessary to make it happen. It may be hard to see now, but there isnt going to be a single historian 50 years from now who blames Iran for the coming conflagration. The only thing that has kept war from happening so far is the restraint of the Iranian government.

Iran helped the world dodge a bullet on January 8th, when it warned the Iraqi government it’s reprisals were coming. The Iranians knew the warning would be passed to the United States, allowing all soldiers to take cover before the two US bases were hit. Despite the best efforts of the CNN and the Washington Post to turn some concussions into war-starting traumatic brain injuries, we were all able to de-escalate.

Iran had to respond to preserve self-respect, but they did so in a way that would allow us to avoid war. They have also, incredibly, stuck with the nuclear deal that Trump is trying ao hard to destroy. But Iran is only acting with such incredible restraint, in the face of the murder of its heroes, and the starvation of its people, because of they see the light at the end of the tunnel.

The light at the end of the tunnel is Joe Biden. Don’t get me wrong, war could still happen. If we get to January 2020, and Biden’s people try to dick around over rejoining the nuclear agreement we could still get war. But I am very confident that Iran has softened its response in the hopes of saner US leadership. Biden is a question mark, but Iran is willing to put up with 5 more months of suffering to get the answer to that question. They are not willing to put up with 4 more years of suffering. Trump’s henchmen have repeatedly bet on the idea that merciless brutalizing of the Iranian people will convince them to change governments. Despite years of failure that policy will not change under this US regime.

So, If Trump wins in November 3rd, you can expect our next trillion dollar disaster to start by the end of the year. It’s a war that the US could win, maybe. But in the long run that “victory” would turn to ash just like the early wins in Iraq and Afghanistan. I have already gamed that out in a prior video. It would be a completely pointless, murderously stupid war. And it’s almost inevitable if Trump is elected.