Donald Trump has proved that he is only capable of destruction. That’s not always a bad thing. On his first day he did away with the TPP, a move I supported, and a couple months back he did took the US out of the Paris Climate Change accords, which I did not support. But it’s the prospect of his taking us out of the Iran Nuclear Deal, as he almost did last week, that is the most frightening.
The conventional fox news narrative of the Nuclear Deal does not acknowledge the diplomacy that was necessary to force Iran to the table. To truly break the deal in a way that has any impact on Iran we need all the same international partners on board. If we don’t have that, we risk making the United States look foolish and weak. Foolish is nothing new. Weak is, and it would be a real problem. Today’s video explains the stakes.
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Video Transcript after the jump…
Hey there, today I’m going to explain why the US really shouldn’t kill the Iran Nuclear Deal, even though Donald Trump really wants us to. Now I’ll tell you right off the bat, that I’m one of those who favors greater peace and opening to Iran. It just makes sense to me. But no matter how you feel about Iran, if you care at all about US power, you want to keep the Iran Nuclear Deal. James Mattis, the Secretary of Defense wants to keep the deal and he hates Iran.
Am I supposed to just forget 241 dead marines?
Of course not General Mattis, but don’t you think everyone has suffered enough? What about the 290 Iranian civilians the US Navy killed a couple years after Beirut?
Not Enough
OK, how about the hundreds of thousands of Iranians that died in the Iran Iraq War we supported throughout the 1980s?
Not enough
Yikes. Well we do agree on the Iran Nuclear deal don’t we?
Yes, Yes we do.
To explain why that is, we’ve got to look at recent history a little more deeply than most news sources do.
Now if you get your facts from Fox News, like President Trump does, you probably think the Iran deal was signed in 2015 because Obama is a big wuss. That’s not how it happened. Obama said nice things about Iran from the beginning of his presidency. But he did not do nice things. Obama forced Iran to the table by putting together an unprecedentedly harsh set of international sanctions.
There had always been sanctions against Iran, especially from the US. What Obama spent his first term doing was getting the rest of the world on board. By July 2012 Europe had stopped buying Iranian oil, and even China was cooperating and buying less. This sent the Iranian economy into a tailspin and forced them to the table. The negotiations started in 2013. US sanctions alone would never have done this.
Obama was able to get the world on board with sanctioning Iran because he was liked, trusted, respected and feared by the rest of the world. Donald Trump is only feared. And not in a good way. It’s more of a Oh god, who let grandma drive the car fear than anything to do with respect.
If Trump throws out the Iran deal who is going to want to follow him in bringing back international sanctions? The Chinese he has repeatedly insulted? The Europeans he has bullied for money, and only grudgingly agreed to honor 70 year old treaties with? The US remains incredibly powerful, and if Iran was seen to be violating the terms of the Nuclear Deal, then Washington, DC could probably get everyone back on board.
But Trump doesn’t want to wait for that. Every three months the President needs to certify to Congress that Iran is complying with the terms of the deal. Despite the fact that Iran is complying, Trump didn’t want to certify that last week. This would make it clear to the world that Trump, and the United States, were the ones welshing on the deal. Just this month, China and France signed a 5 billion dollar oil deal with Iran. Large international companies like Airbus have already made deals with Iran. If The US unilaterally blew up the Iran Nuclear Deal it is very likely we would not be able to bring the international sanctions back. The rest of the world might tell us to get lost. The adults in Trump’s administration know that, and that’s why two of our most well-regarded generals and the former head of one of the world’s largest companies, ganged up on Trump and made him certify Iran’s compliance last week. But Trump wasn’t happy. According to some reports he’s put together a new crack team of to help him justify killing the deal in three month’s time. He’s sick of the generals and captains of industry and has now turned his Iran policy over to Seinfeld royalty collectors, Campus conservatives and the walking personification of the old adage that Americans will believe anything as long as it’s spoken in a British accent.
I’m an expert in foreign policy and the Musliiiims.
The Iran Nuclear deal survived last week, but for the remainder of the Trump administration it will be at risk every three months. I think the end of the deal would be a tragedy, but all Americans should be worried about what happens if we decide to re-start sanctions on Iran, and the rest of the world just ignores us. A scenario like that could be the beginning of the end for US leadership, Decades before it had to happen.
A premature trashing of the Iran Nuclear Deal could represent what’s called a “Suez moment”. I may talk more about that next time. Thanks for watching, please subscribe, and if you’d like to help me make more videos like this one please click on the Patreon link here to find out how.