It was an honor to speak with Jennifer Kavanagh of Defense Priorities, who recently ignited a firestorm in Washington, DC by suggesting a radical change to our policy in Asia. We cover China policy, what it should be, and how vested interests keep it from changing.
You can find her report here.
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I really enjoyed this conversation with J.J. I think we transition quite naturally from New York City politics, to national politics to international politics, and draw some useful connections along the way. I hope you enjoy it!
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We don’t hear much about Taiwan semiconductors anymore. This often happens in national security circles. The point is to make you scared, not to make any meaningful changes to the strategic vulnerability that is claimed to have been identified. Solving this problem would be counter-productive. It’s declining importance means I’ll probably never do a produced video talking about Taiwan chips, so I thought it made sense to throw together an unproduced version. I hope you find it useful.
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Wow, I guess I’ve been doing this a little while. Ten years ago this month, this channel had an early success with a video entitled “3 Reasons China Will Never Rule The World”. A lot has happened over the past ten years. In a discord chat earlier this month, MFF’s social media manager Loga suggested I update that decade old video. Today’s video is my attempt to do exactly that. Am I still as skeptical of claims of Chinese power in the age of Trump? Check out today’s video to find out.
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I could see a lot of people not liking what I did with this video. It’s pretty likely that I’ll have more to say about Israel and the horrors it’s inflicting on its neighbors in the coming months. But before I dive into that, it’s important to understand why Israel is allowed, or even encouraged to be the worst version of itself possible. There are a lot of weird conspiratorial, antisemitic theories out there, that serve to exonerate Washington, DC. It’s not a Jewish plot though. It’s a very clear, very obvious strategy executed by our government. Israel may be uglier, but it’s not that different from what we’re doing in Ukraine and Taiwan. Hell, even Biden makes the connection, as I’ve pointed out in earlier videos. I think most serious geopolitics people, which is how I see my audience, acknowledge that Israel is up to something horrible. What I suspect some in the audience may resent, is my suggestion that the cause of Taiwan and Ukraine may be tainted in similar ways.
Let me know!
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Video Transcript after the jump…
John Oliver is an interesting figure. He’s probably the closest thing we have to an H.L. Mencken, or an Upton Sinclair in our modern digital age. I haven’t watched him consistently since the first or second season of his HBO show, Last Week Tonight, which premiered back in 2014. But whenever he covers something that I’m interested in, I’ll check him out. Usually his take makes me less angry than any other mainstream perspective. The main virtue of his approach is that he gives a single topic 20 minutes to a half hour of his show. Whether the segment is more muck-raking or educational, he’s always able to cover more of the story than any three minute segment. But not even John Oliver is immune to military industrial complex propaganda. Per usual, he does better than most, but even he left some important stuff out in his recent video on Taiwan. So I corrected it for him…
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Video Transcript after the jump…
I have been reading a lot about China lately, and the more I read, the more disturbed I get about the way Taiwan is currently discussed in the United States. For half a century this topic has been understood as the mother of all red lines when it comes to US-China relations. That is no longer the case for discussions in the United States. I am pretty sure it’s still a massive red line for China. Uncharacteristically, I now do think there is a chance of war between the US and China. But because of US aggression, not US withdrawal…
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Video Transcript after the jump…
US media seems allergic to deep dives on how this “New Cold War” got started. So I went ahead and wrote one. Today’s video mostly serves as a trailer for this medium post that lays out the whole story. Give it a read!
You may notice that today’s video looks a little different. I don’t know why it took this long for me to do this, but this weekend I finally signed up with Storyblocks, a company that provides stock footage. In recent years I’ve become more and more concerned with keeping my videos within the letter of copyright law. I didn’t realize until this afternoon how limiting that was. Back when I started out I just grabbed whatever from wherever, with the certain knowledge that nobody would ever come after an obscure channel in Turkey. But in 2017 I started being a lot more careful. I’m very grateful for what I’ve learned through that process and the skills I’ve built…
But man today was fun! With Storyblocks it feels like 2014 again. They’ve got a clip for most anything I want to talk about. I was aware of this flexibility as I finalized the script, and I think it allowed me to put something together that’s a little freer, and maybe even a little bit funny. Anyway, today is the most fun I’ve had editing in ages, and it’s the first of the new “long form” videos that I’m actually proud of. I hope you enjoy it as much as I did…
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Video Transcript after the jump…
Does the United States do any strategic thinking at all? During the Cold War the United States was focused on defeating the Soviet Union, and everything was secondary to that. Even the insult of the explicitly anti-American Iranian revolution was largely ignored in the name of fighting the Soviets. The US government colluded in arming Iran during the 1980s after all. But for the thirty years since the cold war it really hasn’t been about focus… it’s been about finding or creating the enemies necessary to keep the defense money flowing. We’ve been going everywhere and been acting as offensively as possible to keep the world dangerous.
We have clearly reached the limits of that approach. Biden’s supposed withdrawal from Afghanistan (I’ll believe it when I see it) could be an early recognition of this. The US is still overwhelmingly powerful, but when we’re on the border of an enemy that cares infinitely more about a piece of territory than we do, like Ukraine or Iraq or Taiwan, we can’t effortlessly exert our will anymore. If we continue to act as unwisely as we have in the past two decades, we seriously risk getting caught out in a much more serious way than the Iraq disaster. The most obvious way this could happen would be if we somehow blunder into a simultaneous war with Iran and China, in two different regions. With today’s video I examine that possibility, and come to the obvious conclusion that the best thing we can do for the security of Taiwan is get back into the Iran nuclear deal. Fewer enemies mean we might be able to more effectively compete in the rivalries we maintain.
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Video Transcript after the jump…